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Haterade's Idol Anal-ysis: Round of 7 (REDUX)

The Judges have decided last week that Matt Giraud (who Haterade correctly pegged as leaving) was worth saving, which means that this week, two idolists will be going home during disco week. Gordon Pepper and Jason Block reveal who they think is going to be murdered on the dance floor.

Let me start by saying that I will second guess the judges for saving Matt Giraud. He has zero chance of winning the show, and all they have done is set up American Idol for disaster, with a chance of Adam, Danny, Kris or Allison falling into the bottom 2 with no chance of saving them. They should have held on to the save, especially with this week's theme of 'Disco', which has always hurt rockers like Allison.

So why did the judges use the Save? With both Lil and Anoop in the bottom three for the second straight week, I'm sure the judges feel that by using the save now, the people who have been voting for Matt will do so in greater force, escaping the bottom 2 and knocking out both Lil and Anoop. If this happens, the only place the R&B vote has to turn to is Matt, which will propel him into the Final 4 or better, and justifying their save of him. It's an interesting gamble, considering that based on the past few weeks, the audience should boot both Lil and Anoop out, but if anyone except that combination of Anoop and Lil depart, the judges will look ridiculously stupid by either seeing their save wasted or by letting a favorite go. And on a night where the audience knows they need to vote heavy for the Anoop/Lil/Matt combo, strange things could happen...

So enough speculation and on to the show, where we start with someone who desperately needs a good performance - Lil Rounds, as she sings an American Idol staple of 'I'm Every Woman' by Chaka Khan (Yes, Chaka did this first before Whitney).
The Good: At least Lil brings the spunk and attitude with the song. And you can't go wrong with a nice sleek black outfit, complete with flowing tresses.
The Bad: If we created a 'Divas Gone Wild' calendar, Lil would be on it. Her vocals and pitch were all over the place, and it wasn't singing as much as it was screaming. This did remind me of Chaka Khan during the disco era - when Chaka was strung out on whatever narcotic was available.
The Jason: This felt like a bad karaoke performance. The song was too big for her. A very bad song choice. This will be her last performance tonight.
The Verdict: The Diva needed to blow everyone away with her performance. She clearly didn't. When you defend your performance by 'I had a lot of fun tonight', that means that you are resigned to walking out the door. It happened to Megan, it happened to Jasmine, and if Matt and Anoop come out with stronger performances, it's going to happen to Lil.

But could it happen to Kris Allen? He selects...She Works Hard For The Money? With an acoustic guitar? He's clearly putting his own spin on the song, and this could be really good, or really, really bad.
The Good: He puts a nice Melissa Etheridge/KT Tunstall spin on the song. He nails the performance and with his stripped down vocals (and stripped down clothing), sets the mood of the story. This is probably his best performance.
The Bad: The judges need to work harder for the money. Paula is talking about Kris buying women's clothes? Don't you have enough problems with one singer's internet photos? Do we really need a second scandal?
The Jason: This was a very risky choice, but it paid off in spades. I LOVED the new arrangement which sounded like Rob Thomas and John Mayer. This was unique, fresh and original.
The Verdict: Going into the night, there were 2 people I were concerned that could suffer a backlash from the audience rushing to save Matt/Lil/Anoop. Kris was one of them, but after the performance, there's no way he should be in trouble.

Someone who I don't think is in trouble is Danny Gokey, who will be giving us 'September'. Does Earth, Wind and Fire describe his performance? Or will it be a combination of dust?
The Good: He nails the notes and the performance. And although the judges didn't like him hanging out with the back up singers, I thought it was a nice touch, going back to the days of the Four Tops and that style of vocal performance.
The Bad: I expected more of him skirting up the high range. It was another 'good' performance, but like Simon, I want 'Great'. I want someone creative who can either compete with Adam Lambert in the finals or replace Adam if he gets booted before the finals.
The Jason: Awful first note. I thought his key was a 1/2 octave too high for his vocal range. This was Danny's blandest performance to date.
The Verdict: I completely disagree with Jason. Danny had a very good performance this evening. I think us as critics want Danny to be more creative, but in terms of giving his fan base what they want, he succeeds and will not have any issues on Wednesday.

Allison Iraheta decided to give us some 'Hot Stuff' by rocking up the song. I like the fact that singers are taking risks this evening - but can she pull this off?
The Good: I completely disagree with Randy on the arrangement, which I thought was very clever. Allison knew she couldn't disco her way through the song, so she went a rock-Blondie/acid-queen Tina Turner route, which I really enjoyed. And she was on point both with the vocals and the lyrics, which is something that I haven't seen happen from her in a while.
The Bad: The arrangement was good. The outfit, which makes her look like a glittery prostituting mermaid, was not.
The Jason: Another risky Donna Summer arrangement...and this ALSO worked. She turned it into a smoldering rock anthem.
The Verdict: Allison was the other person I was concerned about. I do think her audience will eat this performance up. I'm admittedly not an Allison fan, and I still think she could have some problems because she's competing against Adam for rock votes, but this is the best that I've heard her and on that merit, she should be ok.

Adam Lambert has always been a risk taker. I expect nothing different here, because he's looking for another emotional connect. It's another different spin with 'If I Can't Have You'.
The Good: Points to him for switching up the song. Points to him for emoting the song and conveying the story to the audience. Points to Adam for giving prasie to Michael Orlans, who helped him with the arrangement. And points for absolutely nailing the money pitch in the chorus, which for me salvaged the effort.
The Bad: The opening was really bad. You had the squeaking reverberating feedback and it went downhill from there. He's consistently under the pitch during the song and until he got to the chorus, it was painful to listen to.
The Jason: What is it this week with people taking risks and having it pay off? He turned this into an incredible song of longing and wanting. Simply Brilliant. I will say it again...this is his contest to lose.
The Verdict: I didn't like it nearly as much as everyone else did. Sure, the end of the song was good, but from a pitch perspective, the first 70% was terrible. That being said, you have a better chance of seeing the cast of Saturday Night Fever perform Rigoletto on Idol's stage than seeing Adam in the bottom 3 this evening.

Matt Giraud, on the other hand, I expect to be in the bottom 3. But can he escape the bottom 2 and stay alive with 'Staying Alive'?
The Good: There was nothing 'wrong' with his performance. He was on pitch, and it was a good solid effort.
The Bad: The problem is that the song choice was terrible. If ANYONE needed a song to say 'here's what I can do', with piano, and disco, and slow R&B, and just to showcase himself, it was Matt. Instead, we get an bland song performance that isn't going to help him when the bar has been raised and when 'ok' clearly isn't good enough.
The Jason: Bad slot to follow Adam & Alison...because this performance won't help him stay alive. This was boring and plain. The vocals were good...but on a night where most people stepped it up...this could be big trouble.
The Verdict: I agree with Jason. Matt had a 'Safe' song selection which would be good at the beginning of the season when all you needed was a few bad performers. But everyone has stepped their game up this week. With only 7 singers left, 'Good and Safe' this week shows you the door. And if Anoop shows up, he could be escorting Matt to the door, stage left.

And speaking of which, we end the show with Anoop Desai performing 'Dim All The Lights'. Can Anoop eliminate Matt from the competition?
The Good: Like everyone else tonight, Anoop hit the notes. And he dressed to impress with the professional outfit.
The Bad: What sort of arrangement was that? You could have either made it a nice soft slow ballad (which Anoop is good at) or danced it up and powered it through (which Anoop is also good at). Anoop did neither and gave us something lethargic to put me to bed when I want something to replace warm milk or Jay Leno. And the brutal last note reminded me of Jay Leno's monologues.
The Jason: The first time where the "final spot" performance was terrible. Boring and Sleep Inducing. The song title was a metaphor for his chances tonight.
The Verdict: Whatever producer decided that Anoop's performance was worthy of the last spot in the show should be forced to spin on an inflatable disco ball until he loses his lunch, because after that performance, I almost lost mine.

Overall Verdict: Based on all of this dread going into Disco night, you would think that everyone would be clinching their teeth. Surprisingly, this was actually the best show on Idol this season. Everyone was, for the most part, solid, and you saw a clear separation from the Top 3, one in the middle and the bottom 3. That doesn't bode well for the 3 people at the bottom who needed to find a way to leapfrog the top singers, because I don't think any of them did.

Trouble: Lil Rounds, Matt Giraud, Anoop Desai, Allison Iraheta

You could pick 2 out of the first 3 in a hat between Lil, Matt and Anoop. Any of those three could go, and justifiably so. I'll say that Matt didn't do enough to save himself and Anoop's last performance spot will edge out Lil's first performance spot in a repeat of last week's bottom 2.

OUT: Matt Giraud, Lil Rounds

So why is Allison there? Because this is the round of 7, and strange things happen when America knows when people are dead singers walking. I can see Lil's troops mobilize to save her. And the fact that the audience knows that Matt Giraud was almost out last week could mobilize them as well. So although Matt and Lil were the worst 2 singers this week, and although I think they will both be gone, The Chaos Theory suggests that if there is an upset, this will be it:

UPSET SPECIAL: Anoop Desai, Allison Iraheta

The Jason: We have a distinct separation of who is in the top spots and who isn't. Adam, Alison, Danny and Kris are your top 4 and will be depending on performances...so your bottom 3 are:

TROUBLE: Lil Rounds, Matt Giraud, Anoop Desai

I definitely believe Anoop is going to be one of the two out...but it's a coin flip between Matt and Lil...is Matt's bland performance or Lil's inconsistency going to do the trick? While I want America to flip off the judges for wasting the vote...Lil has just been there...the entire run. She has been the most disappointing.

OUT- Anoop Desai, Lil Rounds

Join us in 24 hours to see who goes from Disco Duck to Disco Fu...screwed.
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