Before we start with the broadcast, let's see what I said in the primer before the round of 24 with Michael Johns:

"Idol and the Oddsmakers are making him the favorite in the competition. What happens to the favorite? They don't win. No favorite has EVER won American Idol. In addition, the backlash from many sites (not to mention the fact that he's not an American) will go against him, regardless of his talent. He'll make the Top 12, but he also won't go as far as people think he will, and I sense he will be the major upset as person going home quicker than expected."

Make that another year where the pre-season favorite doesn't win. Also make it a week where the Chaos Theory happens one week early. Just a reminder of the Chaos Theory - people will vote for you when you sing great or when you sing badly (because they don't want you to be voted off), but if you sing mediocre, you're in trouble because people won't vote, believing that you are safe. Michael Johns did just that, and hence, he was shown the gate. Usually, the surprises start in the round of 7, but because it happened last week instead, will we see more of the same? Only one way to find out...

This week is Mariah Carey, or music written / inspired by her. Mariah wants to see these people on the top of the charts. Some of them will be - but one of them will be leaving. We'll see who that will be...

David Archuleta starts us off with 'When You Believe'. Usually, the person who sings first winds up in the bottom three. Will Archuleta also endure that fate?

The Good - David picked a perfect niche song for his group. It's a challenging slow song, which is what he usually sings, but upbeat enough so that it's a change of pace on what he usually does. And of course, he gets the money notes right, as he always does.

The Bad - Watch that pitch. The beginning was a little shaky. And the shirt looks like he's got some sort of strange tribal markings on it, like he's joining the Mariah Carey secret underground society.

The Verdict - Good song. Good performance. Perfect selection. I think the 'first singer' curse will be ending this evening.

Carly Smithson is sad that Michael is gone. Don't be too sad, because if it wasn't for him, YOU would have been gone. She sings 'Without You', and...could that be a secret ode to Michael Johns?

The Good - Good choice of song. It's a well-known song, which hasn't been overperformed. And the black dress and outfit makes her actually look like a performer who should be on stage, instead of a performer who looks like they are auditioning for a bit part on 'The Wedding Singer'.

The Bad - Bad choice of vocal register. The low part didn't help her at all. I was expecting the money notes and her vocally putting herself out there, and I didn't get it. She sang like she was expecting the hammer to drop, and when you sing like that, it usually does...

The Verdict - Ironically, Ryan Seacrest nailed it on the head, when he suggested that she would be singing this in a bar. This is what you would expect from a lounge bar singer, and not someone who's competing to audition for a musical show. With the Michael Johns audience out there looking for votes, she needed to put on a great performance to capture them and didn't. If David Cook comes out and nails his song, Carly could be in some serious trouble.

Syesha Mercado has done a bunch of diva songs - and the last one landed her in the bottom three. Now she has no choice but to sing a diva song. Which one does she select? 'Vanishing', which she hopes will not be happening to her.

The Good - Some of the runs were great. Where has THAT been for the past month? Great job vocally on those runs.

The Bad - When Randy says 'All Things Considered', he means, 'Well dawg, you selected a song that people don't know dawg, and when you missed the runs dawg, it was ghastly, dawg'. And the dress was so shiny that she looked like a Hershey's Kiss Wrapper.

The Verdict - When you sing a song that people don't know, you need to nail it out of the park, vocally. Syesha, contrary to what Simon said, did just enough of that, and I don't think the lack of song knowledge will hurt her. Besides, just like Kristy didn't go home on country night, I don't expect the R & B singer leaving on R & B night.

Brooke White missed a wedding (though last week, the audience voted like they wanted to send her there). She goes for Hero (with piano), which I figured someone was going to sing.

The Good - Brooke takes the musical chance - which she really needed to do. The piano gives her a sense of daring and the risk was a sound choice - especially because she's seen the bottom before and she knows she needs to produce.

The Bad - Welcome to the 'Mariah Carey Hero Race'. Forget about singing the tune on pitch and in tune, the objective is to get to the end of the song as quickly as you can. And the winner is...Brooke White, who gets through most of the whole song in 90 seconds flat, notes be damned.

The Verdict - It sounded more like 'Villain' than Hero. At the beginning of the night, she was in the same spot as Carly, who needed to produce or she is in trouble. At the end of the night....she's still in the same position as Carly, as she didn't produce. And like Carly, if her musical-genred counter-part (Jason Castro) produces, this spells trouble for her.

Kristy Lee Cook sings 'Until Forever', which I don't think she'll be sticking around for, but maybe she can make it past another week.

The Good - She countrifies the song, who was a very smart move as she tries to get the song to her country masses. She hits the money note very nicely. And the blonde hair nicely matches the dress.

The Bad - Getting to the money note was the equivalent of finding a 5 dollar bill but having 5 pails of cow slop dumped on you first. An absolute brutal start to both regular verses. Don't talk back to Simon. And the dress looks like it was stiff as vinyl. What's up with these wacky long flowing dresses?

The Verdict - If David Cook does what I think he will do, and if Jason Castro does what I think he will do, then Kristy Lee will go back to where she's used to being - bottom three.

David Cook stunk up the joint last week. he can't afford to do that again this week. He tries not to with...'Always Be My Baby'? Wha?

The Good - I like the fact that Cook takes risks. He didn't hide behind the guitar. The second half of the song makes them pay off, as he makes a nice rendition of a song that it took guts to sing.

The Bad - The first half of the song however, which doesn't feature David with an instrument, only has him with some low vocals. Unfortunately, it exposes his vocals as raw at the bottom. He reminds me of Daughtry in that aspect - and as most people painfully remember, Daughtry didn't make the finals.

The Verdict - The fans, who knew that David Cook sang badly last week, will go flocking to David this week, who drilled Carly into the floor. That's going to spell disaster for Carly.

Jason Castro doesn't want to cry. Really. Well, that's what he's singing about anyways as we end the show.

The Good - This is the first time that he actually showed passion and emotion in a performance. Very impressive. And he stays on tune throughout the performance. This may have been the best that I have seen him.

The Bad - Randy says that it feels like a luau. That wasn't the problem. The problem was that it wasn't a 'commercial' song that the judges could wrap their heads around. And in that aspect, if Castro is looking for votes from the mainstream crowd, he isn't going to get it by singing what he just sang.

The Verdict - However, his fans will eat that performance up. That, plus Brooke faltering, means that the voters should flock to Mr. Castro. It should also throw Brooke into the bottom.

The Final Verdict - You had 4 solid performances and three shaky ones. What happens after a Chaos Week? The votes propogate to the strongest singers and the strongest performances. This week, they happen to be both and the same, which makes the bottom three look like this:

TROUBLE - Kristy Lee Cook, Broke White, Carly Smithson

Brooke and Carly are there because their counter-parts sang them under the table. Kristy Lee is there because...well...I like putting her down there. I could put Syesha there too, and probably should, as she could very well be down there, but I like to put Kristy Lee Cook down there. Regardless, neither Kristy Lee nor Syesha will be in the bottom two. So who's gone? The singer who was in a marathon, or the singer who sounded like a lounge lizard? We'll go with the person who's in the same genre as the person who blew everyone away with 'Always Be My Baby', which will probably, like a Butterfly, make her spread her wings and fly, as in off of our television set.

OUT - Carly Smithson

Join us in 24 hours for the results.