So far this season, the eliminations have been formulaic at best and predictable at worst. Though I haven't been perfect, a 12-5 record and a perfect 5-0 Bottom Three record is pretty spiffy. Calling all three bottom singers correctly and not listening to the pack, who insisted there would be an upset in some form, is also a nice little kudo, but there usually is no massive upsets in the first 5 weeks in the finals.

However, once you get to the round of 7, we could start seeing some upsets, as Jennifer Hudson (who got knocked out on this stage) could tell you. Almost all of the 'experts' are saying that there will be an upset, and that Lakisha will be leaving. There may be an upset, but it may not be Lakisha who's leaving. Let's go back and look at the Chaos Theory rules.

1. Oversaturation - Too many singers in an overcrowded genre. Sure, you have 3 R and B singers, but there's something else you have 3 of - 3 Pop Boys - Chris Richardson, Blake Lewis and Sanjaya Malakar. You can even add Jordin Sparks to the mix, as she has diversified all over the place and has attacked every genre very well. The fact that Jordin has migrated over to pop not only expands her base, but also expands Lakisha and Melinda's base, because now the pure R and B voters only have 2 singers to select from instead of 3. On the other hand, Blake, Chris and Sanjaya sing almost the exact same style. The 'experts' think that Lakisha will be leaving, and yes, she has been overshadowed by Melinda 3 out of the past 4 weeks, but I think she may be safer than what they are giving her credit for.

2. Backlash - Did you hear all of that booing when Chris popped on down to the bottom two? The voters are now taking notice and they will be voting hard to keep him into the competition. Who would the little girlies (who I'm sure are going to be all over the Richardson dialing line) also be voting for? Sanjaya...and Blake. I don't think those votes are going to affect Phil that much, but there could be enough of a swing to send a guy down there, especially since the theme is...

3. Theme - COUNTRY WEEK - Country Week has been a nightmare for most Idol contenders. However, there have been 2 people in this group that have performed country music very well, and ironically, they are Chris and Phil - the two people that survived the bottom three last week. If they both sing well, or if Simon tells Phil he's going home, then this sets up the upset bug.

4. Departing vote - Where does Haley Scarnato's vote go? If you're looking for the pretty girl vote, it goes to Jordin. If you're looking for the pop vote, it goes to Chris. That's another reason why Chris will be safe this week and we'll have 2 new people join Phil in the Bottom 3

5. Overall - So in order to get the upset, you need to find someone who is going to sing a forgettable performance, but who won't be considered to be in trouble. Everyone knows that Chris is in trouble, so he should be ok. Jordin and Melinda have had no problems with genres, so I think they will both sing well.

That leaves Phil, who I think even if he sings lights out, will still be in the bottom three. That also leaves Lakisha, who I think could also make the bottom three, but I also think her fan base, who have been hearing for weeks that she is in trouble, may be prepared to vote very strongly for her.

So we have Sanjaya and...Blake? Think about it. Neither of them are going to sing very well in country. Both of their teeny-bopper fans are going to swarm to save Phil and Chris, who they know are in danger, and neither fan base think that they have anything to worry about, because Blake has been the top guy and Sanjaya has the Howard Stern patrol.

If I am Blake or Sanjaya, I better be singing lights out tonight, or there could be a very shocking upset in the works.

Of course, it all comes down to singing, so tune in tomorrow to see if I think that Phil packs his bags or if the singers set themselves up for a possible upset bid.

G.